The Raleigh Reds Team

Archive for November, 2009

David L C Hanson asked:




I am the Sports Editor for a sports news and gambling website. I have many years experience of gambling, sports journalism and study of mathematics. Am I a gambling expert? Well, I guess you could say that.

There are innumerable so-called gambling experts willing to dish out information of their systems to ‘beat the bookie’ or to make a second income from gambling, for a price of course. I won’t do that. I will simply give you information about bookmakers, odds and gambling for you to use (or forget) as you see fit.

The first thing to mention is that the vast majority of people who engage in gambling will be net losers over time. This is the very reason there are so many bookmakers making so much money throughout the world.

While bookmakers can sometimes take big hits, for instance if a favourite wins the Grand National, they spread their risk so widely and they set up markets that incorporate a margin, so they will always make a profit over the medium to long term, if not the short term. That is, as long as they got their sums right.

When setting their odds for a particular event, bookmakers must first assess the probability of that event occurring. To do this they us various statistical models based on data collated over years, sometime decades, about the sport and team/competitor in question. Of course, if sport was 100% predictable, it would soon lose its appeal, and while the bookies are often spot on with their assessments of the probability of an event, they are sometimes way off the mark, simply because a match or contest goes against conventional wisdom and statistical likelihood.

Just look at any sport and you will find an occasion when the underdog triumphs against all the odds, literally. Wimbledon beating the then mighty Liverpool in the FA Cup Final of 1988, for instance, or the USA beating the then mighty USSR at ice hockey in the 1980 Olympics are two examples of when you would have got handsome odds on the underdog. And could have won a decent wedge.

The big bookmakers spend a lot of time and money ensuring they have the right odds that ensure they take into account the perceived probability of the event, and then add that extra little bit that gives them the profit margin. So if an event has a probability of, say, 1/3, the odds that reflect that probability would be 2/1. That is, two to one against that event occurring.

However, a bookie who set these odds would, over time, break even (assuming their stats are correct). So instead they would set the odds at, say, 6/4. In this way they have built in the margin that ensures, over time, they will profit from people betting on this selection. It is the same concept as a casino roulette.

So how can you spot the occasions when bookmakers have got it wrong? Well, it’s easier said than done, but far from impossible.

One way is to get very good at mathematical modelling and set up a model that takes into account as many of the variables that affect the outcome of an event as possible. The problem with this tactic is that however complex the model, and however all-encompassing it seems, it can never account for the minutiae of variables relating to individual human states of mind. Whether a golfer manages to hole a major-winning five foot putt on the 18th at St Andrews it is as much down to their concentration as to the weather or day of the week. Also, the maths can start getting pretty darn complicated.

Alternatively you can find yourself a sporting niche. Bookmakers will concentrate their resources on the events that make them the most money, generally found to be football (soccer), American football and horse racing. So trying to beat the bookies while betting on a Manchester United v Chelsea match will be tough. Unless you work for one of the clubs, or are married to one of the players or managers, it is very likely the bookmaker setting the odds will have more information than you.

However, if you are betting on non-league football, or badminton, or crown green bowls, it is possible, through hard work reading lots of stats, and general information gathering, you can start to gain an edge over bookies (if they even set odds for such things, which many do).

And what do you do when you have an edge in information terms? You follow the value.

Value betting is where you back a selection at odds that are greater than the actual probability of an event occurring. So for instance, if you assess the probability of a particular non-league football team (Grimsby Town, say) winning their next football match as 1/3 or 33%, and you find a bookmaker who has set the odds of 3/1, you have a value bet on your hands. The reason being, odds of 3/1 (excluding the margin built in by the bookie) suggest a probability of 1/4 or 25%. The bookie, in your now learned opinion, has underrated Grimsby’s chances, so you have effectively built in an 8% margin for yourself.

Of course Grimsby (as is often the case) might fluff their lines and fail to win the match, and hence you could lose the bet. But if you continue to seek out and bet on value bets, over time you will make a profit. If you do not, over time, you will lose. Simple.

So the question is, do you have the time and inclination to spend hours finding and refining your sporting niches and/or seeking out the value bets? If the answer is yes, good on you, go for it. If the answer is no, do not fear. At http://www.freebetsfreetips.com/ we give regular free betting tips along with the best odds for various sporting events that will take the hassle out of making your sporting selections and bring you news, match previews and all the best free bet offers to help you get on the best value bets around.

Or, of course, you could marry a football player!

Joseph Daneault asked:




If you’re into the NBA, MLB, or even the NFL then you probably wish you could pick this week’s upcoming winners and losers and actually get paid from it right? Well, have I got the thing for you. You see, sports betting is very popular, but many people do it just for fun. The bad side of that is that you end up losing tons of money. Fortunately for you, there is a system out there where you can win about 97% of your sports bets, and it’s called the Sports Betting Champ.

In summary, a Cornell University graduate with a PhD in Statistics and a sports lover himself, John Morrison, has created an amazing system where you consistently win money from betting on sports. He has spent months and probably even years going over data and statistics. What a nerd. Well I’m glad there are nerds out there that do that stuff and I’m glad he is one of them.

The reason why I’m writing this today, is because the MLB season is about a month into the season, and due to the unique criteria of the system, it usually takes awhile to get some bets going. There has only been one MLB bet so far this season, and of course I won. It was the Oakland Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners on May 1st. The Athletics were underdogs by 1.5 runs, meaning they would win if they lost by one run, or if they won the game. I actually watched the game, and the A’s were ahead most of the game and the Mariners came back at the end and won by 1 run in the bottom of the 9th inning. However, it didn’t matter to me, because I won the bet.

The next bet will be on May 25th, 2009 so if you’re interested in this sports betting system I strongly suggest you get it soon, because once the bets start coming in, it’s like a snowball effect. There will be days where you have more than one bet, so I say get it now so you don’t miss out.

If you don’t get it by then you’ll probably be missing out on a pretty nice chunk of change, but don’t worry there is plenty more in the future to be yours.

Nate Barnett asked:




If I asked you to give a five minute lecture on hitting mechanics start to finish, could you do it? If the answer is yes, then you’ve undoubtedly done some research on the baseball swing. If the answer is no, then there is some work to be done, and you’ll want to read on, especially if you’re in a role where you provide any type of baseball instruction.

Coaches must be continual learners if they are going to stay in this game for long and attract some success. The most dangerous attitude anyone of influence can obtain is an attitude of arrival. Therefore, be a constant learner.

The baseball swing can be broken down into various parts and movements. The key for any good coach or athlete is to understand first what these parts are, and secondly, to understand the sequence of these moving parts throughout the swing. Without getting into depth on the specific parts in this article, my purpose in writing this is to introduce how energy is created within the baseball swing.

Much like other athletic activities the energy created to produce a quick swing comes from the back side of the body. The lower half of the back side of the hitter’s body is responsible for generating momentum directed toward the pitch. This movement does not happen automatically, unfortunately. Most hitters begin their swing with the front side of the body or their hands which greatly reduces the speed of the baseball swing.

The two most common and incorrect swing starters are the hands and the front hip. Here are the drawbacks for using those parts to begin the energy creation process.

Hands: The baseball swing is a movement where energy is created from the ground up. The back knee turns first, back hip second, and hands third. While this sequence happens very quickly, it’s important that it remain consistent. The reason is because this process creates torque. It is a core body movement that creates a whip action and propels the bat into the zone. If the hitter’s hands are responsible for generating power, little power can be generated comparatively.

Front Hip: As explained above, the back side of the body creates energy. Therefore, if the front hip of the hitter begins to rotate at the same time of the back side of the body, momentum begins to move away from the play instead of being directed at hitting the baseball.

Consistent drill work should be focused on minimizing the above two movements. While Little Leaguers can get away with some of these mistakes and have relative success, athletes in high school cannot. Therefore, the best time to correct these incorrect movements is between the ages of 10 and 15.

Harry B Hooper asked:




When you ask baseball card collectors which cards they would most like to get your hands on, most would agree on the top two – the T206 Honus Wagner and the 1914 Babe Ruth. There would probably be some disagreement after that, however. While condition of the card and market conditions certainly carry considerable influence over values, the following list includes five of the most valuable and recognizable cards in the baseball card collecting hobby.

Honus Wagner T206 – The most well-known rookie card in the baseball card collecting community, the Honus Wagner is generally treated as a work of art. It was included in the T206 set between 1909 and 1911 by the American Tobacco Company. Due to a dispute with the American Tobacco Company, between 50 and 200 cards were released to the public. The reasons behind the dispute continue to be questioned – whether Wagner didn’t want his likeness included in packages of cigarettes or whether he wanted additional compensation. Whatever the reason, this limited availability made the T206 Honus Wagner the first valuable baseball card. Today, the card remains both an investment and a symbol of stature, as many famous individuals have bought or sold the card.

1914 Baltimore Sun Babe Ruth – printed in 1914 by the Baltimore Sun newspaper, the Babe Ruth rookie card has become the second-most valuable baseball card in the hobby. This 1914 set included Ruth with his Baltimore Orioles teammates, as well as the International League’s Terrapins. The cards were available in blue or red and included a team schedule on the back. Given the overwhelming continued popularity of Babe Ruth with baseball card collectors, it is quite possible that this card will eventually replace the Honus Wagner as the most valuable card. For now, it stands as a firm number two with collectors.

1952 Topps Mickey Mantle – this Mickey Mantle card has been a darling of the baseball card collecting community for many years. The value of this Mantle card has fluctuated in price a bit over the past couple of decades, but remains popular with collectors and is widely considered the most valuable of cards printed during Mantle’s career.

1951 Bowman Willie Mays – A PSA 9 Bowman Willie Mays card sold in a 2007 auction for over $93,000, further establishing the card as one of the elite cards with collectors.

1933 Goudey Babe Ruth – of all Babe Ruth cards printed during his storied career, his 1933 Goudey cards remain the most widely recognizable. The 1933 Goudey issue included four Babe Ruth cards, reflective of his stature in the sport and in the hobby.

Honorable mention for top cards would have to go to the 1939 Play Ball Ted Williams and the 1949 Bowman Satchel Paige. Despite a spectacular career with the Boston Red Sox, the Splendid Splinter’s rookie card is generally valued at a considerably price than Mantle’s 1952 rookie card. While carrying a classic look, the 1939 Ted Williams is printed in black and white and visually is just not a particularly memorable card. Arguably the biggest name from the Negro Leagues, Satchel Paige had a brilliant career with relatively few baseball cards in circulation today. As a result, this card is seen priced at close to six figures in mint condition.

Rounding out the top ten would be an even more controversial task – Christy Mathewson, Ty Cobb, Hank Aaron, Lou Gehrig, Jackie Robinson, and several others could deserve a seat at that table.